A Random Walk Down Wall Street The TimeTested Strategy for Successful Investing Completely Revised and Updated ISBN=9780393340747 下载 pdf 百度网盘 epub 免费 2025 电子版 mobi 在线

Skilled at puncturing financial bubbles and other

delusions of the Wall Street crowd, Burton Malkiel shows why a

broad portfolio of stocks selected at random will match the

performance of one carefully chosen by experts. Taking a shrewd

look at the high-tech boom and its aftermath, Malkiel shows how to

maximize gains and minimize losses in this era of electronic

brokers, virtual gurus, and flashy investment vehicles. Learn how

to analyze the potential returns, not only for stocks and bonds,

but for the full range of investment opportunities, from money

market accounts and real estate investment trusts to insurance,

home owning, and tangible assets like gold and collectibles. Decode

the rating game for mutual funds and discover the unique advantages

of index mutual funds over the wide range of riskier alternatives.

Year in and year out the best investing guide money can buy, this

enhanced edition includes an update of Malkiel's famous "Life-Cycle

Guide to Investing," showing how to match an investment strategy to

your stage in life.

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　　Dr. Burton G. Malkiel, the Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor

of Economics at Princeton University, is the author of the widely

read investment book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.Dr. Malkiel

has long held professorships in economics at Princeton, where he

was also chairman of the Economics Department. He was dean of the

Yale School of Management and William S. Beinecke Professor of

Management Studies there from 1981.He is a past appointee to the

President's Council of Economic Advisors. In addition, he currently

serves or has served on the boards of several financial

corporations including Prudential Financial and the Vanguard Group.

He has also served on several investment management boards

including the Investment Committee for the American Philosophical

Association.

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这里真正关键的一点是，为了获得多样化带来的降低风险这一好处，相关系数并非必须是负数。马科维茨对投资者的钱包做出了伟大贡献，他证明只要不是完全正相关都可以潜在的降低风险。

即便市场之间的相关系数已经上升，市场之间远非完全相关，所以广泛的多样化依然会倾向于降低投资组合的波动性。

有两个神话推动了房地产和股票市场的发展。第一个神话是日本的土地价格永远不会下降，第二个是股票价格只能上升。在日本传统上，一方面几乎是强制性储蓄（compulsive saving），另一方面是普通储蓄的极低回报——利率低于1%，由此产生的大量现金更是为上面两个神话提供了支持。炒股成了一种全民的当务之急。似乎就在一夜之间，日本通勤车上的男性，都不再习以为常地留恋色情漫画书，转而关注股市里的轶闻趣事。据说，英国的每个街角都有一个投注站（或者赌马登记人），而在日本，每一个街角确实都有一家证券经纪公司。野村证券为了吸引知识阶层的投资者，甚至在广告上用了哥白尼和托勒密的头像。这幅广告将野村证券持有的永久牛市的观点比做哥白尼的“日心说”，而将股市和房地产市场的危险论观点比做托勒密的“地心说”。另外一家日本券商的销售手册上画着一个家庭主妇，手触云端，旁边还有一个箭头，预示着永远上飞。这显然是一个“空中楼阁”正在建造的时期。

对于失控的日本房地产和股票市场，诸多“解释”中最聪明的一条也许是“日本的特殊性”。20世纪80年代后期，我所接触的所有专业人士都深信，强有力的大藏省（MOF）无论怎样都会找到一条避免所有不快的解决办法。如果价格开始回落，大藏省可以限制开发用地。它也可以改变一两条规则，或者制定一项新监管条例来治愈股市中的任何疾病。在整个全球金融市场上，都遍布着这样一种观点：为了促进高股价和经济增长的低资本成本，作为政府政策的一部分，日本市场是“受到操控”的，而且将继续如此。曾有多少次，我们因忽略历史、无视基本经济规律、盲目认定“此次不同往常”而铸成大错、自食恶果！

投机者们推断得出：基本的金融万有引力并不适用于日本的国情。但是，令他们大失所望的是，1990年，伊萨克·牛顿的规律还是应验了。有趣得很，这次让苹果掉下来的，居然是日本政府自己。日本银行（日本的中央银行）发现，土地和股票价格上...

何为愤世嫉俗者？就是知道所有东西的价格却不知任何东西价值的人。

投资需要付出努力，但最重要的是投资实际上非常有趣。与投资界的芸芸众生进行智慧较量，并因此获得资产增值的回报，岂不快哉？仔细打量自己的投资回报，看到回报高于薪酬增长的速度不断积累，不亦乐乎？了解产品和服务的新理念以及金融投资方面的创新，颇为刺激。成功的投资者通常是全面发展的人，他们将天生的好奇心和运用智慧的兴趣融入到赚钱的努力之中。

◆ 前言

>> 一个人承受风险的能力，在很大程度上取决于其年龄以及挣得非投资性收入的能力。

◆ 第一部分 股票及其价值

>> 成功的投资者通常都是全面发展的人，他们将天生的好奇心和对运用智慧的兴趣融入赚钱的努力之中。

◆ 第2章 大众疯狂

>> 金融市场具有一种超强禀赋，当增加投机机会的方法存在真实需求时，市场必定会提供这种方法。

>> 这些泡沫公司的投资者并非都相信自己认股的公司的发行方案切实可行。人们“太心知肚明了”，不至于那么轻信。然而，他们信奉“博傻”理论——相信价格总会上涨，买家总会找到，自己总会赚钱。因此，多数投资者认为自己的行为最理性，他们期待着“在上市交易后”，也就是在股票首次发行后的交易市场上卖出股票，获利了结。

◆ 第3章 20世纪60～90年代的投机泡沫

>> 具有激动人心的概念，能讲出令人信服的好故事，市场现在就能领略到这些特点，而不是要等到很远的将来。因此，所谓的概念股便应运而生了。

>> 包装精美的愚蠢听起来可以像智慧

◆ 第4章 21世纪初的超级泡沫

>> 多数泡沫的发生，要么与某种新技术相关联（如电子热或生物技术热），要么牵涉某种新的商业机会（如有利可图的贸易新机遇的出现酿成了南海泡沫）

>> “顾客认知份额”是另一个很流行的非财务估值标准，它的出现使我确信投资者已全体精神失常。

>> 有些人买一件价值50美元的厨房用具时，会对买与不买的利弊考量几个小时，但他们会根据网上聊天室里所谓的投资建议，拿上万美元的钱去冒险。

因缺思厅

>> 息税折旧摊销前盈利（EBITDA）的意思转变成了“我欺骗愚蠢的审计师前的盈利”（earnings before I tricked the dumb auditor）。

>> 我们本应知道历史的事实已证明投资于正在给社会带来重大转变的技术，对投资者来说常常并不会产生什么...

编辑推荐

　　1.The eternal truth of this updated investment classic,

originally published in 1973, is simple: you can't beat the market.

Well, technically, you can beat the market, but not profitably,

because the transaction costs of your brilliant trading will eat up

the extra returns. You can also beat the market by pure luck-but

you can't deliberately beat the market, because you can't predict

future stock prices. You can't predict them by divining Wall

Street's crowd psychology; or by charting trends in stock prices;

or by doing lots of research on companies' business prospects. You

can't predict them from hemlines (though there's been "some

evidence" for correlation between skirt length and market prices in

the past, Malkiel poo-poos future possibilities) or Super Bowl

winners (this, he says, makes "no sense"). In fact, according to

the efficient market theory, which states that all knowable

information about a stock's value is already reflected in its share

price, you can't predict them at all. Malkiel, a Princeton

economist and professional investor, backs it all up with

statistics, charts and studies, and gives an entertaining review of

the sorry history of market bubbles, panics and delusions of

omniscience, from the Dutch tulip craze to the Beardstown Ladies.

This edition looks at new wrinkles (it seems you can't beat the

market by buying companies with ".com" in the name), and provides a

lucid overview of novel investment vehicles. Standing by his

notorious claim that "a blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts" at

the NYSE listings could pick stocks as well as the Wall Street

pros, Malkiel advises investors to "buy and hold" a diversified

portfolio heavy on index funds that passively mirror the market,

which usually out-perform actively managed funds. His witty,

acerbic style and persuasive arguments will delight readers but,

alas, leave Wall Street unmoved.

From Publishers Weekly

2.This revision of a classic takes the dot-com implosion into

account.

From Library Journal

书籍介绍

Especially in the wake of the financial meltdown, readers will welcome Burton G. Malkiel's reassuring, authoritative, gimmick-free and perennially best-selling guide to investing. Long established as the first book to purchase before starting a portfolio, A Random Walk Down Wall Street features new material on the Great Recession and the global credit crisis as well as an increased focus on the long-term potential of emerging markets. Malkiel also evaluates the full range of investment opportunities in today's volatile markets, from stocks, bonds and money markets to real estate investment trusts and insurance, home ownership, and tangible assets such as gold and collectibles. These comprehensive insights, along with the book's classic life-cycle guide to investing, chart a course for anyone seeking a calm route through the turbulent waters of the financial markets.